What's Your Chance, 2009?

It's magnet application time again so I thought I'd update my 'what are your chances' list. The News & Observer has reported that there will be no major changes to the selection criteria that they used last year. One potential problem is the criteria that a school's Level I or II performance on the EOGs for the past two years must be 20% or less. This wasn't an issue last year because the only elementary school that had more than 20% of its students getting a Level I or II was Brentwood. Since Brentwood was over 40% F&R, students assigned to Brentwood didn't qualify for anything but the last 10% of seats anyway. So I never even mentioned that criteria last year.

However, you may remember that EOG reading scores fell last year because of changes to the test. As you will see from the lists below, this would have significant impact on applicants from several schools. I sent an email to the Board asking if they will stick with this criteria or not. When I hear from them or when the criteria are officially decided upon, I will change the following list if I need to.

One of the criteria for acceptance into a magnet is the F&R% of your node. If you live in a node that is more than 27% F&R, you are not eligible for selection until Round 4. Without knowing the F&R% of your particular node, we can still see which base schools give you the best chance of being accepted to a magnet. According to WCPSS, 31.6% of all elementary students participate in the Free & Reduced Lunch Program. I rounded that up to 32% then considered 27% to be 5% points below the average. After siblings are placed, the earliest you can be accepted into an elementary magnet based on your current base school is:

Rounds One and Two--8 Schools
**Must live in a node 27% or less F&R, base school must be 27% or less F&R, crowding factor must be greater than 100%, and 2 year avg of Level I or II performance must be 20% or less. Round 1 is for those who meet all the criteria and applied for the same program last year but were denied. Round 2 is the same except for the 'applied last year' criteria.

Cedar Fork
Davis Drive
Forest Pines
Lacy
Oak Grove
Turner Creek
West Lake
Wiley (magnet)

Round Three--12 Schools
**Must live in a node with 27% or less F&R, base school must be 27% or less F&R crowding factor must be greater than 85%, and 2 year avg of Level I or II performance must be 20% or less.

Ballentine
Brassfield
Brooks (magnet)
Carpenter
Heritage
Holly Grove
Jones Dairy
Leesville Road
Morrisville
Olive Chapel
Pleasant Union
Willow Springs

Round Four--14 Schools
**No requirement for F&R of your node, base school F&R must be less than 40%, crowding factor must be at least 85%, and 2 year avg of Level I or II performance must be 20% or less.
Apex
Dillard Drive
Farmington Woods (magnet)
Fuller (magnet)
Hunter (magnet)
Joyner (magnet)
North Ridge
Northwoods
Olds
Penny Road
Root
Wake Forest
Washington
Weatherstone

Lottery for the Remaining 10% of Seats--65 Schools
**Comments after each school indicate why it wasn't considered in the first 4 rounds. For schools who missed the other rounds solely because of Level I/II performance, I put which round they would otherwise qualify for in bold.

Adams (76.7% crowding)
Aversboro (52.1% F&R, 28.5% Level I/II)
Baileywick (20.8% Level I/II) Round 4
Barwell (58.8% F&R, 37.2% Level I/II)
Baucom (61% crowding)
Brentwood (82.3% crowding, 69.8% F&R, 42.2% Level I/II)
Briarcliff (22.3% Level I/II) Round 4
Brier Creek (74.7% crowding)
Bugg (49.2% F&R, 26.8% Level I/II)
Carver (78.1% crowding, 57.7% F&R, 25.8% Level I/II)
Cary (20.9% Level I/II) Round 4
Combs--magnet (21% Level I/II) Round 4
Conn--magnet (42.8% F&R, 27.4% Level I/II)
Creech Road (64.3% F&R, 32.6% Level I/II)
Douglas--magnet (24.4% Level I/II) Round 4
Durant (29.6% Level I/II) Round 4
East Garner (70.2% crowding, 58.9% F&R, 49.3% Level I/II)
Forestville Road (43% F&R, 25.9% Level I/II)
Fox Road (60.5% F&R, 28.3% Level I/II)
Fuquay-Varina (23.9% Level I/II) Round 4
Green (71.4% crowding, 26.1% Level I/II)
Green Hope (74.2% crowding)
Harris Creek (82.2% crowding, 27% Level I/II)
Highcroft Drive (64.9% crowding)
Hilburn Drive (79.7% crowding, 42% F&R)
Hodge Road (59.9% F&R, 35% Level I/II)
Holly Ridge (21.1% Level I/II) Round 1
Holly Springs (76.2% crowding)
Jeffrey's Grove (23.8% Level I/II) Round 4
Kingswood (40.1% F&R, 23.9% Level I/II)
Knightdale (77.6% crowding, 55.7% F&R, 29.3% Level I/II)
Laurel Park (78.4% crowding)
Lead Mine (43.5% F&R)
Lincoln Heights (23.1% Level I/II) Round 4
Lockhart (69.9% crowding, 44.7% F&R, 22% Level I/II)
Lynn Road (46.7% F&R)
Middle Creek (21.1% Level I/II) Round 3
Millbrook--magnet (55.6% F&R, 28% Level I/II)
Mills Park (75.9% crowding)
North Forest Pines (27.2% Level I/II) Round 3
Partnership--magnet (23.5% Level I/II) Round 1
Poe--magnet (45.2% F&R, 30.1% Level I/II)
Powell--magnet (52.3% F&R, 24.8% Level I/II)
Rand Road (82.1% crowding)
Reedy Creek (41% F&R, 22% Level I/II)
River Bend (56.2% F&R, 31.8% Level I/II)
Rolesville (22% Level I/II) Round 4
Salem (82.9% crowding)
Sanford Creek (68% crowding, 37.7% Level I/II)
Smith (74% crowding, 68.1% F&R, 36.6% Level I/II)
Stough (46.4% F&R, 27.3% Level I/II)
Swift Creek (25.1% Level I/II) Round 4
Sycamore Creek (75.2% crowding)
Timber Drive (40.3% F&R, 23.9% Level I/II)
Underwood--magnet (23.3% Level I/II) Round 1
Vance (23.3 % Level I/II) Round 3
Vandora Springs (46.7% F&R)
Wakefield (78% crowding, 22.7% Level I/II)
Wakelon (66.7% F&R, 37.5% Level I/II)
Wendell (49.6% F&R, 27.4% Level I/II)
Wilburn (64.5% crowding, 57.8% F&R, 32.2% Level I/II)
Wildwood Forest (23.7% Level I/II) Round 4
Yates Mill (21.3% Level I/II) Round 4
York (74% crowding, 47.3% F&R, 24.3% Level I/II)
Zebulon (72.5% crowding, 57.2% F&R, 23.9% Level I/II)