What Did MYR Conversions Do To Your Chances?

I was struck by a few of the converted schools that were so underenrolled that they didn't qualify for any of the rounds in the magnet lottery. Since they had F&R low enough to qualify, I wondered how the conversions affected their chances.

This year's criteria were very similar to last year's. The only differences were Round One going to the 4 demagnetized schools and the capacity figure of 85% used in later rounds. Last year's capacity figure was 90% for the later rounds. Following is a table that shows the earliest round that each converted elementary was eligible for last year as well as this year. I adjusted this year's rounds by removing the special consideration for the demagnetized schools. So Rounds 2-5 became Rounds 1-4 this year to make the comparison more in line. As you will see, not all of the schools were affected but Baucom, Green Hope, Middle Creek and Wakefield were the most negatively affected by the conversions.

45 out of 96?!?

Students from 45 out of the 96 elementary schools get to compete for the last 10% of magnet seats. Interesting and frankly, a bit shocking and sad.

Only 25 base school applicants have to compete for the first FOUR rounds of magnet selection. Even sadder.

So What Are Your Chances?

I posted the criteria for getting selected for a magnet program in the last post. But what does that mean for you?

Even without knowing the F&R% of your particular node, we can still see which base schools give you the best chance of being accepted to a magnet. According to WCPSS, 31.6% of all elementary students participate in the Free & Reduced Lunch Program. I rounded that up to 32% then considered 27% to be 5% points below the average. After siblings are placed, the earliest you can be accepted into an elementary magnet based on your current base school is:

Round One--4 Schools
Base or Magnet students at Root, Olds, Forestville,and Lincoln Heights.

Rounds Two and Three--15 Schools
**Must live in a node 27% or less F&R, base school must be 27% or less F&R, and crowding factor must be greater than 100%
Baileywick
Brassfield
Cedar Fork
Davis Drive
Forest Pines
Hunter (magnet, not sure they have any base nodes under 27% F&R)
Lacy
Oak Grove
Partnership (magnet, not sure they have any base nodes under 27% F&R)
Pleasant Union
Turner Creek
Wake Forest
Weatherstone
West Lake
Wiley (magnet at 27.7%--not sure how WCPSS would treat this)

Round Four--6 Schools
**Must live in a node with 27% or less F&R, base school must be 27% or less F&R, and crowding factor must be greater than 85%
Ballentine
Brier Creek
Highcroft
Jones Dairy
Morrisville
Salem

Round Five--26 Schools
**No requirement for F&R of your node, base school crowding factor must be at least 85%, and no more than 40% F&R
Adams
Apex
Brooks (magnet)
Combs (magnet)
Dillard Drive
Douglas (magnet)
Durant Road
Farmington Woods
Fuller (magnet)
Fuquay-Varina
Green
Harris Creek
Hilburn Drive
Holly Ridge
Jeffrey's Grove
Joyner (magnet)
North Ridge
Northwoods
Penny Road
Rolesville
Swift Creek
Timber Drive
Underwood (magnet)
Washington (magnet)
Wildwood Forest
Yates Mill

Lottery for the Remaining 10% of Seats--45 Schools
**Comments after each school indicate why it wasn't considered in the first 5 rounds.
Aversboro (53.3% F&R)
Baucom (82.3% crowding, but only 12.1% F&R)
Barwell Road (57.9% F&R)
Brentwood (65.8% F&R, 24.3% Level 1 or 2)
Briarcliff (40.9% F&R, but 112.5% crowding)
Bugg (magnet, 44.4% F&R, but 129.4% crowding)
Carpenter (73.2% crowding, but only 14.7% F&R)
Carver (61.8% F&R, 71.6% crowding)
Cary (40.9% F&R, but 120.6% crowding)
Conn (magnet, 44.8% F&R, but 117.4% crowding)
Creech Road (62.4% F&R, but 109.8 crowding)
East Garner (59% F&R, 52.4% crowding)
Fox Road (52.9% F&R)
Green Hope (82.9% crowding, but only 5.9% F&R)
Hodge Road (58.6% F&R)
Holly Springs (78.7% crowding, but only 17.3% F&R)
Heritage (79.1% crowding, but only 24.4% F&R)
Holly Grove (82.3% crowding, but only 16.9% F&R)
Kingswood (41.4% F&R, but 120.8 crowding)
Knightdale (62% F&R, 83% crowding)
Leesville Road (76.7% crowding, but only 12% F&R)
Leadmine (41.7% F&R, but 101.1% crowding)
Lockhart (45.8% F&R, 75.7% crowding)
Lynn Road (41.7 % F&R, 74.3% crowding)
Middle Creek (77.4% crowding, but only 20.5% F&R)
Millbrook (magnet, 55.5% F&R, but 107.6% crowding)
North Forest Pines (66% crowding, but only 21.6% F&R)
Olive Chapel (81.7% crowding, but only 4.9% F&R)
Poe (47.2% F&R, but 111.7% crowding)
Powell (57.7% F&R, but 115.1% crowding)
Rand Road (82.7% crowding, but only 25.6% F&R)
Reedy Creek (83.6% crowding)
River Bend (57.5% F&R)
Sanford Creek (64.9% crowding)
Smith (70.8% F&R, but 106.8% crowding)
Stough (46.4% F&R)
Vance (75.5% crowding, but only 20.4% F&R)
Vandora Springs (52.2% F&R)
Wakefield (82.4% crowding, but only 25.6% F&R)
Wakelon (78.9% crowding, 63.5% F&R)
Wendell (46.8% F&R, but 105.6 crowding)
Wilburn (79.4% crowding, 53.5% F&R)
Willow Springs (82.8% crowding)
York (49.2% F&R, but 103.7% crowding)
Zebulon (equity magnet, 75.2% crowding, 56.6% F&R)

Magnet Selection Criteria

I've mentioned here before that the magnet 'lottery' isn't a true lottery. It's weighted--certain nodes of students have a better chance of getting into a magnet than others do. WCPSS has released the selection criteria for this year.

SELECTION CRITERIA – ELEMENTARY MAGNET
Siblings of present magnet students identified on the intent form

After assigning the students who meet the criteria above, the school will determine the number of vacancies available.

90% of these vacancies will be filled from valid applications in the following order:

ROUND ONE (For 2008-09 only)
· M or B from 413, 476, 524, or 548 This translates to magnet or base from Forestville, Root, Olds and Lincoln Heights. Those are 4 of the schools that were demagnetized this year. In the case of Forestville, it was supposed to get a magnet program but then the board decided against it AFTER families had applied for the program. Note that Wake Forest Elementary isn't included on this list because it was an equity magnet, meaning that it was entirely base, no applications. I don't have a problem with them not getting priority for magnet programs, but why do the base populations at the other 4 schools get priority?

ROUND TWO
· Live in a node where the SES percentage for elementary aged children is at least 5% below the county average AND
· Assigned to a base school where the SES for elementary aged children is at least 5% below the county average AND
· Assigned to a base school where the 2-year average of level 1 and 2 percentage students tested is 20% or less AND
· Assigned to a base school that has a current crowding factor above 100% of the adjusted building capacity AND
· Submitted a valid application for the same program the previous year

ROUND THREE
· Same as Round Two with deletion of previous year’s application

ROUND FOUR
· Same as Round Three with the revision of the crowding factor to be above 85% of the adjusted building capacity.

ROUND FIVE
· Assigned to a base school that has a crowding factor above 85% of the adjusted building capacity AND
· Assigned to a base school where the SES for elementary aged children is less than 40% AND
· Assigned to a base school where the 2-year average of level 1 and 2 percentage students tested is 20% or less.

Ten percent (10%) of vacancies identified above will be filled randomly from all remaining valid applications.

SELECTION CRITERIA – SECONDARY MAGNET
The selection process for secondary schools is the same as elementary with the addition of the second priority which states that students currently attending a magnet school and have magnet status have a priority to attend a magnet school in the next grade configuration: middle school or high school.

How Does F&R % Affect EOG Passing Rates? Updated

As I was updating my spreadsheets with EOG passing rates from the 2006-07 NC Report Cards, I noticed that I made a mistake the first time I posted these figures. I used the F&R percentages from 2006-07 but the EOG passing rates from 2005-06. So I redid the tables with the F&R and EOG rates from the same years. Not much changed--the results still show that the Non-Economically Disadvantaged (NED) children's EOG scores went down as F&R went up while the Economically Disadvantaged (ED) children's scores didn't seem to follow any pattern.

Reassignment Countdown

Like many of you, I am anxiously awaiting the release of the reassignment plan. Unlike many of you, this is the first year that I've had to worry about it affecting my children directly. This is our first year at our base school, having been at a magnet the previous 4 years. So here I am with that same feeling of dread that so many of you across the county are feeling right now. Except now I have the added guilt of having taken my children out of their protected status and throwing them into this mess.


I've been thinking a lot lately about the desire for stability and what lengths parents will go to achieve it. Private schools, charter schools, homeschooling, and the magnet schools. A good friend of mine said something last year that really struck me. I asked if she had seen that some nodes near her had been reassigned to a year round school and her response was "Well, that's why we were smart enough to go to a magnet school".

I have two big problems with this statement. First, what about all the people who applied for magnet schools but were denied? We were LUCKY enough to get into the magnet system. What about people who would like to go to a magnet but can't make it work with their family's schedule? After school care is a different issue when you don't live or work anywhere near the school. A few magnet schools have regular 'neighborhood' buses, but most offer express buses or no bus at all and that makes it more difficult to arrange child care.

Second, my only reason for applying to a magnet school was because I wanted the special program (in my case, daily Spanish instruction) that only a magnet could provide. After hearing my friend's comment, I started to pay more attention to people when they talked about the magnet they were in and why they chose to attend a magnet. Many people attend a magnet mainly to escape reassignment or to escape their assigned base school for whatever reason. The special programs are secondary to them and that frustrates me.

I don't fault them for seeking a better situation for their children, but I am frustrated that at least some of them got chosen in the 'lottery' instead of somebody who really wanted the magnet programs. Programs that WCPSS is not willing to fund for everybody. If WCPSS is going to hold special academic programs hostage in the magnet schools then families who actually want those programs should be able to get them. Of course there is no answer to this because nobody is going to admit at application time that they are just there for the stability and not the program. But it still makes me angry that withholding academic programs is used as a weapon against families in Wake County.

Only 4.5 more hours until the assignment plan is released. Some of us will be cautiously relieved and some of us will be angry and frustrated. I know that whichever side I fall on I'll be hoping for the best for all of you. Good luck everybody.

Updated F&R Numbers

I've been MIA for a while and hopefully that will change starting with this post. Now that the F&R figures are out for the current year, I'm updating my list of schools that are over 50% F&R. The table below shows the schools currently over 50% along with their F&R% from last year. All schools are elementary unless there is an MS after the name.